Tuesday, May 24, 2011

So what do you do when you predict the world will end on a particular date and nothing happens?

Well, obviously, you revise the date and claim "the Rapture" will take place in five months -- or 21st October, to be exact. Details here. I happily bet £1m it won't happen. Any takers?

1 comment:

Richard Baron said...

But Thom, the stakes are higher than that. You (and I) risk eternal damnation. If there is a non-zero probability that the end is nigh (and we are not predestined anyway and any pre-ordained destiny cannot be changed by backwards causation), then one should be in a church now, giving oneself the chance that belief will grow on one. The only way out I can see is to apply a positive discount rate, so that the net present disvalue of eternal damnation, and the net present value of eternal bliss, are both finite. Then if the probability is small enough, the expected value of carrying on as usual will be higher than the expected value of acting on Pascal's advice.