Thursday, November 04, 2010

US election predictions come true!

Readers may recall my earlier set of predictions concerning the US elections. These predictions were:

1. Harry Reid will retain his US Senate seat. (He did!)

2. Christine O'Donnell will be unsuccessful in her run to join the US Senate. (She was!)

3. The Republicans will *not* gain control of the US Senate. (They did not!)

4. The Republicans will score a very narrow majority in the US House of Representatives, much less than predicted.
Let me comment more on point 4. While the Republicans did score a big victory, it was less than many had predicted. Their majority in the House of Representatives from January 2011 will be workable, but not as large as many suspected. Plus, it is also worth noting that about half of the Palin/Tea Party supported candidates lost their elections: I suspect this surprised many as well (but not me).
I score my predictions as about 3.75. Don't ask me to predict an Obama second term quite yet, although I remain very optimistic.


meditations71 said...

Happy to see most of your predictions come true, but you have little experience in the betting business Thom. These calls would not have given you very high odds on the betting markets. In fact, the only one of your three first predictions that was ever really likely to turn our differently than your prediction was the Nevada Senate race.

As for the swing in the House, it was the biggest since 1938.

The other point that is perhaps not sufficiently highlighted in media coverage is that congressional redistricting will take place next year. The Republicans are now in control again of many additional state legislatures, including in key swing states which means that they will use redistricting there to their favour (both parties adopt a ruthlessly partisan approach to redistricting when they're in control) ahead of the 2012 elections.

With senate seats, governor's offices and state legislatures controlling redistricting falling into Republican hands in several important states, Obama's road to re-election looks difficult.

Oh, and some 25% of the electorate thinks he is a Muslim/atheist/communist/Antichrist. Sigh.

The Brooks Blog said...

I disagree. You are correct to say that perhaps most thought Reid would lose Nevada and so I called this well, but I don't think the other predictions were as easy as you suggest. While I will concede that O'Donnell (who has received a genuine avalanche of attention...and support) was always an unlikely winner, many had predicted a real chance that the US Senate would fall into Republican hands. I thought this spoke more to rightwing optimism than reality and the Senate did not fall into their hands.

Yes, there was a major swing of seats in the US House of Representatives, but let us not forget that even this bad night for Democrats was not as bad as many had feared. The Tea Party seems to have greater abilities at ruining the chances of Republicans from winning over votes from the general public. I agree with many now who believe the Tea Party may do much of Obama's work for him in bringing disunity to the Republican Party. Yes, districts will be redrawn and this will have consequences. However, when the party cannot get its favoured candidates on ballot papers and finds itself supporting progressively ideologically pure and well to the right of the general electorate, it may prove an opportunity missed.

Time will tell if this prediction comes true as well.

P.S. Yes, a large number have this false belief about Obama's religious identity. Note that this group is almost entirely Republican-supporting. Yet another sign that the Party of No is moving ever more off the rails.