Monday, November 01, 2010

US election predictions

Many have predicted poor results for the Democrats after the US elections are held tomorrow. I suspect that the news won't be good, but won't be as bad as has been feared. While the poor economy does Obama few favours and the president's party is traditionally hammered in midterm elections, my suspicion is that many incumbents will hold on (if just by a thread). My 2010 predictions are:

1. Harry Reid will retain his US Senate seat.
2. Christine O'Donnell will be unsuccessful in her run to join the US Senate.
3. The Republicans will *not* gain control of the US Senate.
4. The Republicans will score a very narrow majority in the US House of Representatives, much less than predicted.


John said...

Tom, as much as it kills me -- and it really kills me -- I'm afraid the Dems are going to get properly clocked tomorrow. I would expect House loses somewhere between 55-65 seats (70 is not out of the question), while they may squeak the Senate by 1 or 2 seats. If they end up 50/50 it comes down to Joe Lieberman and I'd suspect he'd bolt (again....sighhhh). Also, Reid is toast for sure -- I think he loses by 3-4%.

One thing to remember is that the Dems picked up 31 seats in 2006 and 21 in 2008. So, things will actually be returning back to some kind of post 1994 normal. Most of those 52 seats the Dems won those two cycles they had no business winning in the first place except for the fact that in 06 and 08 the nation had grown really tired of the Republicans.

Alas, the average American's short memory crossed with a general sense of economic malaise and sourness mixed with a little tea party madness is going to yield a big day for Republicans.

In the long run, though, probably good for Obama's chances in 2012. Its going to be really hard for the Republicans to ignore the Tea Party Crazies and they by no means are prepared to govern. So, it may be a painful night for the Dems, but I think they'll find some joy in the next six months watching the Right have a not so civil war, at least in the House. And then of course the Republican primaries are going to be great fun... Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!

Allen Coates said...

I guess my predictions for your predictions are that #1 is mistaken (unfortunately: I hope you're right and I'm wrong) and the rest are right (though I'm a little unsure about #4).

Alan said...

God I hope you're right Thom. In my state--Wisconsin--there is a real chance that an empty-suit Tea Partier might unseat one of the best, most accomplished Senators this state has ever produced--Russ Feingold. My fingers are triple-crossed!

The Brooks Blog said...

We shall know how it pans out soon enough... I still think there will be some (pleasant) surprises.

The Brooks Blog said...

Glad to see my predictions largely came true!